Two current “it” books seem to offer competing theories. “Blink”
says experts succeed when they go with their guts (''decisions made
very quickly can be every bit as good as decisions made cautiously and
deliberately.''). But “Moneyball”
argues that baseball execs who analyze stats outperform scouts who go
with instinct. David Brooks points out the interesting theoretical
split between the two in his NY Times review of Blink.
The
thick-slicing part of the brain reminds me that not long ago I read
Michael Lewis's great book, ''Moneyball,'' about a baseball executive
who used rigorous statistical analysis to clobber fuzzy-minded old pros
who relied on their gut impressions. What is the relationship between
self-conscious reason and backstage intuition? Which one is right more
often?