Friedman talks about toppling the “tribes with flags” in the Middle
East as if it was similar to “uncorking champagne.” I see it as playing
with hand grenades in an ammo dump of primary loyalties. Let's see who is out of touch with reality…

Both Friedman and Bush underappreciate the long-term consequences of
Iraq. 9/11 was a black swan and unlikely to be repeated with any
meaningful frequency. Iraq changes the dynamic. Global guerrilla
warfare within the borders of the US is now nearly inevitable.

NOTE: I wish I wasn't right on this, but I was right about a
guerrilla war in Iraq, infrastructure disruption in Russia, growing
instability in Saudi Arabia, high oil prices (due to global guerrilla
activity), and the lack of meaningful guerrilla opposition in
Afghanistan (at least until they begin to crack down on opium
production this year). [John Robb's Weblog]

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