WHAT'S NEXT IN IRAQ. US forces are now in a precarious and untenable position in Iraq. The window of opportunity for an easy exit has passed. Three years of fighting an open source insurgency has destroyed Iraq's economy (through systemsdisruption starting in 2004), worn down US commitment/curtailed operational flexibility (the IED marketplace during 2004/05/06), and forced a country-wide descent into primary loyalties (through a combination of social systems disruption that reached a crescendo in 2006 and an early reliance on loyalist paramilitaries
as a force multiplier back in 2004). Iraq is now in full failure and as
a result, the assumption that the US will be able to continue with its
partial efforts at urban pacification has become dangerously wrong.
The
reasons should be obvious. US forces are now surrounded by a sea of
militias and insurgents. Within Baghdad itself, where the current
pacification effort is focused, US troops are badly outnumbered in
extremely difficult urban terrain. Worse yet, the opposition is growing
in numbers, sophistication, and aggressiveness at a rate more rapid
than the static number of US troops can build up the Iraqi military. It
is now only a matter of time before either a misstep or a calculated
event pushes the countryside into full scale warfare. . . . [Global Guerrillas]