Attacking Iran

Attacking Iran

Der Speigel
. Rumors are flying that attack prep is in motion.

“western security sources” claim that during CIA Director Porter Goss' Dec. 12 visit to Ankara, he asked Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan to provide support for a possibile 2006 air strike against Iranian nuclear and military facilities. More specifically, Goss is said to have asked Turkey to provide unfettered exchange of intelligence that could help with a mission. DDP also reported that the governments of Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Oman and Pakistan have been informed in recent weeks of Washington's military plans.

In recent weeks, the number of American and NATO security officials heading to Ankara has increased dramatically. Within a matter of only days, the FBI chief, then the CIA chief and, most recently, NATO General Secretary Jaap De Hoop Scheffer visited the Turkish capital. During her visit to Europe earlier this month, US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice also traveled to Turkey after a stopover in Berlin.

This about face:

Two weeks ago, Yasar Buyukanit, the commander of the Turkish army and probable future chief of staff of the country's armed forces, flew to Washington. After the visit he made a statement that relations between the Turkish army and the American army were once again on an excellent footing.

Suggests this:

Most media speculated that Erdogan and Goss might have discussed a common initiative against the PKK in northern Iraq. It's possible that Goss demanded secret Turkish intelligence on Iran in exchange.

My two cents on how this attack would occur:
it would rely on a combination of hard target destruction (facilities that don't contain nuclear material) and an EBO directed against Iranian cities. What this means is that there is no way to take out 300 dispersed facilities with airpower with any degree of confidence. Destruction of Iranian infrastructure through an effects-based attack (EBO) would be made to force them to allow inspectors in to supervise the dismantling of their program. IT would de-modernize them until they complied.

This is a bold strategy for the mid-term elections. It would totally reverse public sentiment and provide new justification for the “Bush Doctrine.”

Unfortunately, this system perturbation will only accelerate the instability already underway and drive oil prices through the roof… Anyone know of a good LEAP-like product for oil that I could buy? For global guerrillas in Iraq, this will be mana from heaven since it will allow Sunni guerrillas to make common cause with Shiite guerrillas
the US. In larger geopolitical terms, we would soon find ourselves in a fight with a global guerrilla virtual state factory that stretches from Israel to China.   [John Robb's Weblog]

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