Will Iraq move towards civil war if the US withdraws. Probably not.
This would require a radical reversal in 5th generation global
guerrilla operations (states vs. autonomous fragmented non-state forces
as opposed to 4th generation states vs. non-state proxies or Maoist
revolutionary movements) from its current equilibrium point
back towards conventional methods. This is unlikely to happen. A more
likely outcome: a Colombian scenario with groups funded by oil instead
of cocaine. The paramilitary divisions in Basra demonstrate the
inability of Shiites to act as a unit. Each group will stake out a
territory (including the government as the biggest gang of all) and
exact “taxes” on oil production. This rough stability (controlled
chaos) can exist for decades. [John Robb's Weblog]
This would require a radical reversal in 5th generation global
guerrilla operations (states vs. autonomous fragmented non-state forces
as opposed to 4th generation states vs. non-state proxies or Maoist
revolutionary movements) from its current equilibrium point
back towards conventional methods. This is unlikely to happen. A more
likely outcome: a Colombian scenario with groups funded by oil instead
of cocaine. The paramilitary divisions in Basra demonstrate the
inability of Shiites to act as a unit. Each group will stake out a
territory (including the government as the biggest gang of all) and
exact “taxes” on oil production. This rough stability (controlled
chaos) can exist for decades. [John Robb's Weblog]