William Lind opines on US domestic politics ( Lind is one of the best, albeit grumpy due to years of institutional neglect, minds thinking about next generation warfare. My bet is that Zawahiri reads Lind and Boyd as closely as Guderian read Hart and Fuller).
But what of the world beyond Iraq? That is where one sees the full effect of Iraqs factory of WMDs Wars of Mass Destruction. The State Department has just told all Americans to leave Saudi Arabia, while they can still get out alive. Over a hundred people are dead in Thailand, where local Islamics are waging a new jihad. Moslems and Christians are going at it again in Indonesia and Nigeria. The Israelis, beaten in Gaza as they were beaten in Lebanon, find it impossible to move either forward or back. Pakistan, whose army got its a– handed to it by tribesmen on the old Northwest Frontier, is turning a deaf ear to increasingly desperate demands from Americas generals in Afghanistan for tough action. President Mubarak of Egypt warns from his tottering throne that America has never been so hated in the Middle East as it is now.
Each days newspapers make the same point: in the misnamed War on Terrorism, America is losing and losing badly. Osama & Company are having a banner year. The reason is not any brilliance on their part, but gross buffoonery on ours. Specifically, the invasion and occupation of Iraq by America have created the greatest recruiting drive in history for the other side.
He continues with another article on contingency planning (and given that Iraqis guerrillas are armed to the teeth, it is worth paying attention to):
The disastrous course of Americas war in Iraq has created a new task for the Great General Staff, in the form of more contingency planning. America needs to make sure it has a plan in the file for a fighting withdrawal from Iraq.
It is still possible the end may not come this way. We may still manage a shaky hand-off to a U.N.-designated Iraqi government, and that government might last long enough for us to withdraw with some shreds of dignity. George W. might awake some morning a new man, announce he was swindled, sack the neo-cons and bring in someone like Marine Corps General Tony Zinni, who opposed the war all along, to handle our disengagement. The Archangel Michael might appear over Mecca and convert all the Mohammedans to Christianity.
But the growing probability is that we will be driven out of Iraq by a general uprising, an intifada in which every American will be the target of every Iraqi and our boys (and, in Americas Neo-Model Army, girls) will have to fight their way out in a scene like that which faced Gordon in the Sudan.