Booming concepts for 2003 that will do well in 2004 (initial list):
- RSS 2.0 aggregators and feeds: Wow, what a year! More feeds than any of us can keep up with!
- Cameraphones: More cameraphones were sold than digital cameras earlier this year. This will become ubiquitous.
- Guerrilla warfare (IEDs, RPGs, and suicide cars): Watch what happens to Iraqi infrastructure over the next year. Will the US stay in Iraq through the year with 2-3 casualties a day?
- Political weblogs (and political social software): Dean has the oppportunity to build a third party based on his campaign's Internet efforts. Nuff said.
- Personal hard-drives (multimedia players with attachments): Storage is on a roll, step aside if you are in the way. Watch for screens, TiVo like functionality, and more to take off.
- Second Superpower movements: All over the global map. Challenging nation-states and corporations everywhere. Powered by social technology.
- Professional virus developers. Watch 2004 to see where many of the world's most talented software developers are spending their time. This isn't for teenagers anymore. A virus with a professional development cycle is an amazing thing to watch.
- Skype and VoIP software. On a roll. Simple and effective.
Bust concepts for 2003 that will continue to decline in 2004 (initial list):
- Personal privacy and fair use rights. Thank you MPAA and the RIAA!
- The Bill of Rights. Thank you Bush and the Patriot Act II!
- Cures for currently incurable diseases. Thank you to the Religious Right and the Bush Administration!
- Social networking software (it will take another year to work out how to use it correctly). Friendster et. al. in retreat.
- Most wanted lists. It takes more than eliminating certain despised individuals to change the world.
- Prosecution of corporate and financial bad behavior. Not in my lifetime. Steal $1,000 from the house of the guy down the street and he will chase you with a gun. Steal $1,000 from him via abuse of his pension fund and he doesn't have a clue, nor do the authorities have a clue how to prosecute the perps.
- P2P software. The lawsuits have done their work to slow adoption. Adware and spyware included with P2P systems have finished the job.
- The UN. On the run in 2003. Will continue in 2004. Without US support, the UN is useless.