Booming concepts for 2003 that will do well in 2004 (initial list):
  1. RSS 2.0 aggregators and feeds:  Wow, what a year!  More feeds than any of us can keep up with!
  2. Cameraphones:  More cameraphones were sold than digital cameras earlier this year.  This will become ubiquitous.
  3. Guerrilla warfare (IEDs, RPGs, and suicide cars):  Watch what happens to Iraqi infrastructure over the next year.  Will the US stay in Iraq through the year with 2-3 casualties a day?
  4. Political weblogs (and political social software):  Dean has the oppportunity to build a third party based on his campaign's Internet efforts.  Nuff said.
  5. Personal hard-drives (multimedia players with attachments):  Storage is on a roll, step aside if you are in the way.  Watch for screens, TiVo like functionality, and more to take off.
  6. Second Superpower movements:  All over the global map.  Challenging nation-states and corporations everywhere.  Powered by social technology.
  7. Professional virus developers.  Watch 2004 to see where many of the world's most talented software developers are spending their time.  This isn't for teenagers anymore.  A virus with a professional development cycle is an amazing thing to watch.
  8. Skype and VoIP software.  On a roll.  Simple and effective.

Bust concepts for 2003 that will continue to decline in 2004 (initial list):

  1. Personal privacy and fair use rights.  Thank you MPAA and the RIAA!
  2. The Bill of Rights.  Thank you Bush and the Patriot Act II!
  3. Cures for currently incurable diseases.  Thank you to the Religious Right and the Bush Administration! 
  4. Social networking software (it will take another year to work out how to use it correctly).  Friendster et. al. in retreat.
  5. Most wanted lists.  It takes more than eliminating certain despised individuals to change the world.
  6. Prosecution of corporate and financial bad behavior.  Not in my lifetime.  Steal $1,000 from the house of the guy down the street and he will chase you with a gun.  Steal $1,000 from him via abuse of his pension fund and he doesn't have a clue, nor do the authorities have a clue how to prosecute the perps. 
  7. P2P software.  The lawsuits have done their work to slow adoption.  Adware and spyware included with P2P systems have finished the job.
  8. The UN.  On the run in 2003.  Will continue in 2004.  Without US support, the UN is useless.
[John Robb's Weblog

Booming concepts for 2003 that will do well in 2004 (initial list):

  1. RSS 2.0 aggregators and feeds:  Wow, what a year!  More feeds than any of us can keep up with!
  2. Cameraphones:  More cameraphones were sold than digital cameras earlier this year.  This will become ubiquitous.
  3. Guerrilla warfare (IEDs, RPGs, and suicide cars):  Watch what happens to Iraqi infrastructure over the next year.  Will the US stay in Iraq through the year with 2-3 casualties a day?
  4. Political weblogs (and political social software):  Dean has the oppportunity to build a third party based on his campaign's Internet efforts.  Nuff said.
  5. Personal hard-drives (multimedia players with attachments):  Storage is on a roll, step aside if you are in the way.  Watch for screens, TiVo like functionality, and more to take off.
  6. Second Superpower movements:  All over the global map.  Challenging nation-states and corporations everywhere.  Powered by social technology.
  7. Professional virus developers.  Watch 2004 to see where many of the world's most talented software developers are spending their time.  This isn't for teenagers anymore.  A virus with a professional development cycle is an amazing thing to watch.
  8. Skype and VoIP software.  On a roll.  Simple and effective.

Bust concepts for 2003 that will continue to decline in 2004 (initial list):

  1. Personal privacy and fair use rights.  Thank you MPAA and the RIAA!
  2. The Bill of Rights.  Thank you Bush and the Patriot Act II!
  3. Cures for currently incurable diseases.  Thank you to the Religious Right and the Bush Administration! 
  4. Social networking software (it will take another year to work out how to use it correctly).  Friendster et. al. in retreat.
  5. Most wanted lists.  It takes more than eliminating certain despised individuals to change the world.
  6. Prosecution of corporate and financial bad behavior.  Not in my lifetime.  Steal $1,000 from the house of the guy down the street and he will chase you with a gun.  Steal $1,000 from him via abuse of his pension fund and he doesn't have a clue, nor do the authorities have a clue how to prosecute the perps. 
  7. P2P software.  The lawsuits have done their work to slow adoption.  Adware and spyware included with P2P systems have finished the job.
  8. The UN.  On the run in 2003.  Will continue in 2004.  Without US support, the UN is useless.

[John Robb's Weblog]

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