Adam Curry is on to something. George Gilder claimed that bandwidth would become the least expensive computing resource through a doubling rate of 12 months (mostly focused on advances in Fiber optics) as compared with Moore's 18 month doubling rate. Everything would be centralized George said. Java would rule. Sun would emerge dominant with its “network as the computer” mantra.
Wrong on two counts:
1) Last mile bandwidth growth has been halted in its tracks by recalcitrant telephone monopolies.
2) Magnetic storage now doubles every nine months (it shifted to this rate in 1998). Also, there is reason to believe the Moore's law has shifted to a 12 month doubling rate, down from its previous 18 month pace.
What this means is that the PC and not centralized services will win. A smart bet: desktop Websites and Webapps that provide a contextual environment for rich content delivery.
Note: Why a desktop Website instead of a rich client? Simplicity. Ease of editing. Low costs. [John Robb's Radio Weblog]